Were willing to work for the implementation of a federal system free of the But neither the TPLF nor ethnonationalist elites The expectation of changeįollowing the collapse of the rule of the TPLF was the establishment of a true,ĭemocratic federal system.
Operated under one hegemonic party, the TPLF. Since its very inception, the Ethiopian federal system has Yet, the underlining issue thatĬauses the rift is anything but elusive, for the issue is not so much theĪcceptance or not of multiethnicism as the hegemonic aspiration of some of theĬontending parties. Program the reality of a multiethnic Ethiopia. Parties agree on the essential issue, namely, on the need to include in their Accordingly, this fact should be the basis for a broad agreement as regards the upcoming election and the prospect of forming a governing coalition if the results are not decisive enough to produce a ruling majority.Īrticle does not clarify the mystery of the political impasse even as the major What is noteworthy is that, after underlining the political impasse of the country, Lefort admits that both poles, namely, “Abiy pole” and the “ethnic federalist pole”, “would eventually need to become decidedly multi-ethnic.” One is tempted to ask, why then speak of impasse? If both poles cannot but accommodate the reality of a multiethnic Ethiopia, where is the ideological chasm that separates them? Lefort’s insight is true: the survival of Ethiopia as one country, to which all the major parties seem to subscribe, at least officially, depends on the recognition and acceptance of its multiethnic political representations. Pushing the country to the edge of the precipice. Because the ethnonationalist opposition is both internalĪnd external, it does not give Abiy much room to maneuver worse, it is progressively This alliance of ethnonationalistįorces, which also comprises the TPLF, constitutes by far the greatest threat Various opposition parties, has already led to the formation of open allianceĭirected against Abiy and his followers. To the project of unifying the ruling party into one party, in addition toĪlarming ethnonationalist groups within the ruling coalition as well as in Will not provide any solution to issues dividing the country, and this isĬontrary, says Lefort, to Abiy’s expectation that it “will finally be legitimateĮnough to build a coalition which can set the course to resolve two key issues.” In other words, theĮlection, assuming that it can still take place or avoid any major disruption,
That has a remote chance of being considered as legitimate. Some stability and security, the scheduled election cannot produce any outcome Without a prior agreement between the contending forces and the return of Reaching of a minimum of consensus over the results, whatever the results mayīe. Ideological disparities among the contending forces make impossible the Of accepted norms and rules, the persistence of insecurity, and the wide National elections will not only increase the competition betweenĭifferent parties and influential leaders, but, more importantly, the absence The exasperating impact of the two upcoming events isīut obvious. Scheduled national elections and the project to merge the ruling coalition of This already tense situation are added two exacerbating factors, namely, the upcoming Without a prior agreement between the contending forces and the return of some stability and security, the scheduled election cannot produce any outcome that has a remote chance of being considered as legitimate. It starts from the observation that the coalition of parties that rule the country is unable to govern because it is contested both locally and at the national level by “informal local groups of influential personalities or new community groups.” This loss of authority and control to groups that are often armed is evidenced by the widespread insecurity and the frequent ethnic clashes at the local level and by indecisions and discords at the national level. Lefort’s analysis looks pertinent, indeed. It is with great interest that I have read René Lefort’s analysis and prognosis of the political situation of Ethiopia in an article titled “A flicker in the Gloom.” There is no doubt that the recent bloody disturbances have not only exposed the deep divide threatening the stability and unity of the country, but they also gave a clear picture of what is in store if nothing is done to reduce the violent tendency of the political fractures.